The question we asked in vannamei tip #67 was: Is this the turning point of the Ecuadorian shrimp price?
The straight answer is yes and no, here’s why:
Yes – Due to an increase in price.
No – Due to the possibility of a decrease in price.
Currently, China is the only large buyer with the potential to purchase. USA and EU are preparing for the holiday season and will not place new orders until mid-January.
In India, the harvest is currently in its final stages, and the new season will begin in March/April.
Consequently, the situation in the Chinese domestic market will have a significant impact on Ecuador shrimp.
China as we see it:
As a result of China relaxing its epidemic prevention policy. There are many people who are infected, getting sick, and staying home, so many restaurants are closed.
Due to a lack of personnel, many express deliveries and logistics have been suspended, causing the online sales volume to decrease.
In the early days of the opening, the sales price rose, but as sales volumes decreased, the price followed.
The price of some brands went up to 0.40 USD per kilo, but then immediately declined to 0.20-0.30 USD per kilo.
It is only a month until Chinese New Year, but sales have fallen by 60% compared to last year’s same period.
It is likely that some goods bought at high prices will not be sold before the Chinese New Year and will be left for sale at a later date.
In the following month, importers might not be able to place large orders due to these factors.
Large importers believe orders should be placed after Chinese New Year, depending on the situation.
Despite of the fact that this analysis seems logical this week, next week, or even sooner, there will be countless factors that could alter the outcome.